Prediction Markets as an Information Aggregation Tool for Effective Project Management in Defense Acquisition Projects
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Authors
Valerdi, Ricardo
Potoski, Matthew
Subjects
Performance Based Management
Cost Estimates, Schedule Estimates, Prediction markets, Schedule Estimates, Estimation Methodologies
Cost Estimates, Schedule Estimates, Prediction markets, Schedule Estimates, Estimation Methodologies
Advisors
Date of Issue
2011-04-30
Date
30-Apr-11
Publisher
Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School
Language
Abstract
A central challenge in defense acquisition is the development of accurate cost and schedule estimates. The lack of discipline in estimating and unrealistic expectations in the early phases of programs have been often cited as common causes for poor performance of large programs (GAO, 2004, 2006). Initial estimates provided by contractors are known to ''anchor'' expectations (Aranda & Easterbrook, 2005), even when changes in personnel, technology, or budgetary priorities can affect the performance of a program. We examine the use of prediction markets as a tool for generating schedule estimates as a supplement to existing estimation methodologies.
Type
Description
Proceedings Paper (for Acquisition Research Program)
Series/Report No
Department
Acquisition Management
Organization
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
NPS-AM-11-C8P21R02-072
Sponsors
Acquisition Research Program
Funder
Format
Citation
Distribution Statement
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.