Effects of Moral Conduct Waivers on First-term Attrition of US Army Soldiers

Abstract

This study evaluates the US Army''s policy on granting moral conduct waivers and the effects of moral conduct waivers on the quality of service. The analysis investigates the wartime levels of recruits who were approved for different categories of conduct waivers. The research methodology includes multivariate analyses in the form of ordinary least squares regression models and probit regression models. This study employs US Army MEPCOM data obtained from the Defense Manpower Data Center (DMDC) for soldiers who enlisted between 2000 and 2006. The study will analyze first-term attrition as a function of age, sex, race, AFQT, rank, bonus size, education, prior service, youth program participation (such as JROTC), contract length, and all sub-categories of conduct waivers. In addition, I analyze attrition at 180 and 365 days for all cohorts. The study also includes a survival analysis to investigate whether conduct waivers affect the duration of survival during the first enlistment contract. The analysis reveals that attrition rate differences between soldiers with waivers and those without does not remain constant and depends on when attrition is measured. At the beginning of the first term, conduct waiver soldiers attrite at lower rates than non-waiver soldiers. However, at the end of the first term this pattern is reversed. Model results show that recruits in the Global War on Terror (GWOT) sample did not have a large difference in attrition rates between the waiver and non-waiver groups by the end of the first term of service. By breaking down the conduct waivers into sub-categories of waivers (substance, serious, and traffic), I find that there are significant differences between each groups'' attrition rates. These findings raise the question of whether the conduct waiver policy needs to be revised to better suit current wartime needs and demographic changes in the recruit population.