Small Business Research in a World of Skewed Returns
MetadataShow full item record
This paper observes that outcomes from small business support programs are likely to have a small fraction of observations with extremely positive outcomes that may impact program evaluations and conclusions. Current evaluations of small business support programs generally estimate the efficacy of the program using an estimation of an average outcome or an average treatment effect. Because there are so few small business programs that have been designed for evaluation, researchers often report a simple average outcome based on a survey response of treated firms or, in very rare cases, report the effectiveness of the program as an average-treatment effect based on a quasi-experimental or experimental design. Unfortunately, presenting the small business programs'' impact as an average might be understating the magnitude of the impact of the program because the actual distribution of the outcome of the program is probably not normally distributed and is probably skewed in the positive direction. In light of the possibility that small business programs produce skewed outcomes, this paper recommends that the small business evaluations include discussions on the distribution of outcomes to better inform policy makers, administrators, and participations on the nature of the outcomes.
Proceedings Paper (for Acquisition Research Program)
NPS Report NumberNPS-AM-12-C9P05R02-052
Showing items related by title, author, creator and subject.
Markman, Capt Matthew R.; Ritschel, Jonathan D.; White, Edward D.; Valentine, Shawn (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 2019-04-30); SYM-AM-19-082This paper creates standard cost factors that more accurately reflect observed outcomes in the development stages of major programs. Specifically, this effort creates 443 new cost factors that are delineated by five ...
Naval Postgraduate School Center for Homeland Defense and Security (CHDS) (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate SchoolCenter for Homeland Defense and Security, 2006-07);July 2006. The July 2006 issue of Homeland Security Affairs offers articles about risk perception, domestic right wing extremist groups, social network analysis, and the impact of foreign policy on homeland security. It ...
Acquisition Management (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 2011-04-30); NPS-AM-11-018During his internship with the Graduate School of Business & Public Policy in June 2010, U.S. Air Force Academy Cadet Chase Lane surveyed the activities of the Naval Postgraduate School''s Acquisition Research Program in ...