Explicit Analytical Expression for a Lanchester Attrition-Rate Coefficient for Bonder and Farrell’s m-Period Target-Engagement Policy

Abstract

The purpose of this working paper is to give an explicit analytical expression for a Lanche s- ter-type attrition-rate coefficient for direct-fire combat in a heterogeneous-target environment with serial acquisition of targets for Bonder and Farrell’s m-period target-acquisition policy1. It develops this result (its main result) from Taylor’s [2001d] new important general result (that does not depend on the target-engagement policy of a firer type or even on the particulars of the target-acquisition process) for a Lanchester attrition-rate coefficient for serial acquisition by developing explicit ana- lytical expressions for the two key intermediate quantities on which the coefficient depends: namely, (1) expected time to acquire a target that will be engaged, (2) next-target-type-to-be-engaged probability. An analytical expression for the former quantity (the expect value) was recently developed by one of the authors (Taylor [2001e]), while the paper at hand develops such an expression for the latter probability. These two new important intermediate results have allowed us to develop the explicit analytical expression for a Lanchester attrition-rate coefficient for Bonder and Farrell’s target- acquisition policy via Taylor’s general expression for direct-fire combat in a heterogeneous-target environment with serial acquisition of targets. These analytical results are then verified against simulation results.