Climate change mitigation: can the U.S. Intelligence Community help?

Abstract

The administration has declared climate change to be a threat to national security. Thus far, the national security establishment has focused its attention on adaptation to the effects of climate change rather than mitigation of the human cause, though evidence of the need to reduce global CO2 emissions continues to mount. This thesis asks whether the U.S. Intelligence Community (IC) might be enlisted in the battle against climate change (global warming), by supporting the international monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) of a global greenhouse gas limitation treaty. This covert monitoring is already contemplated by the CIA, though the question remains open, Congress has conducted no public discussion of whether using the ICs unique covert sources and methods would in fact aid in climate change mitigation. This thesis compares various cases involving the ICs monitoring of weapons nonproliferationand in particular the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT)with a hypothetical international CO2 emissions limitation agreement (ICELA) successor to the Kyoto Protocol. Using these case study findings, an analysis of four policy options for structuring an IC CO2 emissions limitation monitoring entity (ICCME) is conducted. By adopting the most promising of these options, Congress might ensure that the ICCME would support, rather than undermine, a future ICELA.