Naval Postgraduate School
Dudley Knox Library
NPS Dudley Knox Library
View Item 
  •   Calhoun Home
  • Theses and Dissertations
  • 1. Thesis and Dissertation Collection, all items
  • View Item
  •   Calhoun Home
  • Theses and Dissertations
  • 1. Thesis and Dissertation Collection, all items
  • View Item
  • How to search in Calhoun
  • My Accounts
  • Ask a Librarian
JavaScript is disabled for your browser. Some features of this site may not work without it.

Browse

All of CalhounCollectionsThis Collection

My Account

LoginRegister

Statistics

Most Popular ItemsStatistics by CountryMost Popular Authors

Mapping populations: an objective measurement of revolutionary dynamics

Thumbnail
Download
Icon13Jun_Gaugush_Merkl_Thompson.pdf (1.721Mb)
Download Record
Download to EndNote/RefMan (RIS)
Download to BibTex
Author
Gaugush, David
Merkl, Gregory
Thompson, Nicholas
Date
2013-06
Advisor
Fox, William P.
Owen, Guillermo
Metadata
Show full item record
Abstract
This work proposes a mathematical paradigm for modeling the rise and fall of coalitions during intrastate conflicts. It proposes that misalignment of preferences within constituencies drives instability, which can lead to revolution. To arrive at preference for an issue, the model considers two components: ideology and fervor. It shows that ideology tends to remain static while fervor changes rapidly. With the preferences of a society mapped according to constituents ideology and fervor, the model then considers how coalitions exercise control in their quests for dominance. The model builds upon the foundation of expert thought on intrastate conflict. It uses their generally qualitative assessments and employs measurable data and linear algebra to give a more formal depiction of the dynamics at play. Mapping populations in this manner may give insight into optimal strategies for eliciting stability or instability in a state. Using a hypothetical country in a developing revolution, the work implements the map to depict a governments attempts to stabilize a devolving intrastate system. It shows how rival coalitions can rapidly rise from irrelevance to preeminence by manipulating fervor. The work concludes by depicting the impacts of various third-party strategies for intervening in intrastate conflicts.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.
URI
http://hdl.handle.net/10945/34666
Collections
  • 1. Thesis and Dissertation Collection, all items

Related items

Showing items related by title, author, creator and subject.

  • Thumbnail

    Who are the soldiers of the revolution? 

    Hanson, Gay M. (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 1996-09);
    This thesis records the results of a data-based analysis of 207 intrastate wars from 1945 to 1995. The intent of developing this database was to statistically determine the involvement of indigenous peoples in violent ...
  • Thumbnail

    Enabling persistent peace after negotiated settlements 

    Mejia, Evert Andres; Green, Jason Christopher (Monterey, California: Naval Postgraduate School, 2016-12);
    This thesis examines the theory and practice of sustaining peace after an intrastate conflict. After an agreed-upon peace settlement is signed, certain factors support sustaining the peace, and for this study those factors ...
  • Thumbnail

    INTRASTATE CONFLICT RECURRENCE: LESSONS FOR COLOMBIA 

    Orozco Jimenez, Luis Enrique (Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School, 2018-12);
    What are the conditions and factors affecting intrastate conflict recurrence? This thesis tests the effect of the type of conflict outcome, the use of peacekeeping forces, and the presence of lootable resources on the ...
NPS Dudley Knox LibraryDUDLEY KNOX LIBRARY
Feedback

411 Dyer Rd. Bldg. 339
Monterey, CA 93943
circdesk@nps.edu
(831) 656-2947
DSN 756-2947

    Federal Depository Library      


Start Your Research

Research Guides
Academic Writing
Ask a Librarian
Copyright at NPS
Graduate Writing Center
How to Cite
Library Liaisons
Research Tools
Thesis Processing Office

Find & Download

Databases List
Articles, Books & More
NPS Theses
NPS Faculty Publications: Calhoun
Journal Titles
Course Reserves

Use the Library

My Accounts
Request Article or Book
Borrow, Renew, Return
Tech Help
Remote Access
Workshops & Tours

For Faculty & Researchers
For International Students
For Alumni

Print, Copy, Scan, Fax
Rooms & Study Spaces
Floor Map
Computers & Software
Adapters, Lockers & More

Collections

NPS Archive: Calhoun
Restricted Resources
Special Collections & Archives
Federal Depository
Homeland Security Digital Library

About

Hours
Library Staff
About Us
Special Exhibits
Policies
Our Affiliates
Visit Us

NPS-Licensed Resources—Terms & Conditions
Copyright Notice

Naval Postgraduate School

Naval Postgraduate School
1 University Circle, Monterey, CA 93943
Driving Directions | Campus Map

This is an official U.S. Navy Website |  Please read our Privacy Policy Notice  |  FOIA |  Section 508 |  No FEAR Act |  Whistleblower Protection |  Copyright and Accessibility |  Contact Webmaster

Export search results

The export option will allow you to export the current search results of the entered query to a file. Different formats are available for download. To export the items, click on the button corresponding with the preferred download format.

A logged-in user can export up to 15000 items. If you're not logged in, you can export no more than 500 items.

To select a subset of the search results, click "Selective Export" button and make a selection of the items you want to export. The amount of items that can be exported at once is similarly restricted as the full export.

After making a selection, click one of the export format buttons. The amount of items that will be exported is indicated in the bubble next to export format.