Mapping populations: an objective measurement of revolutionary dynamics
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Authors
Gaugush, David
Merkl, Gregory
Thompson, Nicholas
Subjects
Population map
coalition
strategy
games
econometric
economy
counterinsurgency
insurgency
intrastate conflict
interstate conflict
fervor
mathematical modeling
human domain
coalition
strategy
games
econometric
economy
counterinsurgency
insurgency
intrastate conflict
interstate conflict
fervor
mathematical modeling
human domain
Advisors
Fox, William P.
Owen, Guillermo
Date of Issue
2013-06
Date
Jun-13
Publisher
Monterey, California: Naval Postgraduate School
Language
Abstract
This work proposes a mathematical paradigm for modeling the rise and fall of coalitions during intrastate conflicts. It proposes that misalignment of preferences within constituencies drives instability, which can lead to revolution. To arrive at preference for an issue, the model considers two components: ideology and fervor. It shows that ideology tends to remain static while fervor changes rapidly. With the preferences of a society mapped according to constituents ideology and fervor, the model then considers how coalitions exercise control in their quests for dominance. The model builds upon the foundation of expert thought on intrastate conflict. It uses their generally qualitative assessments and employs measurable data and linear algebra to give a more formal depiction of the dynamics at play. Mapping populations in this manner may give insight into optimal strategies for eliciting stability or instability in a state. Using a hypothetical country in a developing revolution, the work implements the map to depict a governments attempts to stabilize a devolving intrastate system. It shows how rival coalitions can rapidly rise from irrelevance to preeminence by manipulating fervor. The work concludes by depicting the impacts of various third-party strategies for intervening in intrastate conflicts.
Type
Thesis
Description
Series/Report No
Department
Defense Analysis (DA)
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NPS Report Number
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Distribution Statement
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.