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dc.contributor.advisorAngelis, Diana
dc.contributor.advisorArmey, Laura
dc.contributor.authorHodgson, Sidney W.,III
dc.dateJun-13
dc.date.accessioned2013-08-01T16:51:40Z
dc.date.available2013-08-01T16:51:40Z
dc.date.issued2013-06
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10945/34677
dc.description.abstractSome major defense acquisition programs (MDAPs) are cancelled while others are not. The research evaluates earned value (EV) data reported by 12 cancelled MDAPs and compares it to the EV data reported by 12 MDAPs that had significant cost overruns yet were not cancelled (referred to as troubled programs). The study investigates whether there are differences in the key EV metrics reported for cancelled and troubled but not cancelled programs and seeks to develop a model that captures the probability of cancellation based on EV information. The thesis hypothesizes that cancelled programs would have more unfavorable cumulative cost and schedule variances, greater cost growth in the estimate at completion (EAC), and more disparity between the contractor and program manager cost estimates. Mann-Whitney tests were used to identify significant differences in EV metrics between the two groups and a probit model was used to further explore the relationship between EV information and the probability of program cancellation. The Mann Whitney and probit results, viewed together, suggest that early cost growth in a program may be an indicator of program cancellation. The thesis also suggests ways to improve EAC using probabilistic methods, including quantifying the level of cost risk associated with the EAC.en_US
dc.description.urihttp://archive.org/details/aninvestigationo1094534677
dc.publisherMonterey California: Naval Postgraduate Schoolen_US
dc.rightsThis publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.en_US
dc.titleAn investigation of possible discriminating earned value variables in Department of Defense major acquisition program cancellationen_US
dc.contributor.secondreaderPaulo, Eugene
dc.contributor.departmentSystems Engineering (SE)
dc.subject.authorEarned Value Managementen_US
dc.subject.authorMajor Defense Acquisition Programsen_US
dc.subject.authorCancellationen_US
dc.subject.authorMann Whitneyen_US
dc.subject.authorProbiten_US
dc.subject.authorProbabilistic Modelingen_US
dc.description.recognitionOutstanding Thesisen_US
dc.description.serviceCommander, United States Navyen_US
etd.thesisdegree.nameMaster of Scienceen_US
etd.thesisdegree.nameMaster of Science in Systems Engineeringen_US
etd.thesisdegree.levelMastersen_US
etd.thesisdegree.disciplineSystems Engineeringen_US
dc.description.distributionstatementApproved for public release; distribution is unlimited.


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