Dynamical influence and operational impacts of an extreme mediterranean cold surge
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In February 2004, a significant cold surge from eastern Europe extended southward over the Aegean Sea and as far south as the northern coasts of Egypt and Libya. The system examined in this study caused over 45 cm of snowfall in Souda Bay, Crete, which significantly impacted operations at Naval Support Activity Souda Bay. The extratropical wave associated with the cold surge could be classified as a classic life-cycle 1 wave break. The wave-breaking event is linked to successive cyclogenesis over the western North Atlantic and a significant ridge-building event over the eastern North Atlantic. This case study will examine the role of dynamic processes that include the warm conveyor belts of the midlatitude cyclones and the warm-air advection that led the ridge over the North Atlantic. The significance of the ridge-trough couplet with respect to climatology is examined. Ensemble forecasts are used to examine the predictability of the cold surge event and its dependence on the upstream synoptic scale events.
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