Publication:
Covert coercion: a formal analysis of unconventional warfare as an interstate coercive policy option

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Authors
Wittmer, Luke A.
Subjects
Coercion
Compellence
Coercive Diplomacy
Unconventional Warfare
Covert Action
Paramilitary Action
Political Action
Proxy Warfare
Policy Objective
Game Theory
Decision Theory
Expected Utility
Prospect Theory
Iran
Lebanon
Iraq
Cuban Missile Crisis
Tibet
Afghanistan
Soviet Union (USSR)
Nicaragua
Contra
Korean War
World War II
Advisors
Giordano, Frank
Date of Issue
2013-06
Date
Jun-13
Publisher
Monterey, California: Naval Postgraduate School
Language
Abstract
In the current global environment, interstate coercion methods are used to compel behavior modification amongst state and state-sponsored actors. Traditional compellence is commonly considered in its overt, diplomatic manifestation. However, in the age of low-intensity conflict where domestic and international exigencies often constrain U.S. coercive policy options, covert methods in the form of unconventional warfare, subversion, sabotage and other associated paramilitary and political actions are occasionally pursued as the means to support the U.S.s coercive overtures. Under the rubric of covert coercion there are state-level decision frames, strategies, and resistance force alliance conditions that contribute to either the success or failure of covert coercion ventures that utilize unconventional warfare approaches. This analysis utilizes game theoretic models, as well as insights from prospect theory, to explain the conditions under which unconventional warfare could prove a viable U.S. coercive policy option.
Type
Thesis
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Department
Defense Analysis (DA)
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Distribution Statement
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.
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