The development of a naval battle model and its validation using historical data
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Authors
Beall, Thomas Reagan.
Subjects
Naval combat modeling
Model validation
Naval tactics
Model validation
Naval tactics
Advisors
Hughes, Wayne P. Jr.
Date of Issue
1990-03
Date
1990-03
Publisher
Monterey, California: Naval Postgraduate School
Language
Abstract
This thesis describes the development and validation of a naval battle model which incorporates a tactical theory by Captain Wayne P. Hughes, Jr. Opposing forces are portrayed as aggregations of the staying power and combat power of their individual platforms. Attrition is modeled as a force-on- force process and is expressed in terms of the degradation of each force's combat power and staying power throughout the engagement, user variation of model inputs concerning the timing, direction and strength of each force's fire permits analysis of the impact of scouting effectiveness and Command and Control on battle dynamics. Data from fourteen historical naval battles were gathered to compute model input parameters for the opposing forces and their interactions. The model's prediction of the outcome is compared with each battle's actual outcome. The conclusion drawn from this analysis that the model is a fair representation of reality. The model's potential for practical application is explored by using it to analyze the tactical options of the U.S. commander at the World War II Battle of Savo Island. Model results clearly indicate the weakness in U.S. tactics in this battle and suggest alternative tactics which afforded a better chance of success. (Author)
Type
Thesis
Description
Series/Report No
Department
Department of Operations Research
Organization
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
Sponsors
Funder
Format
vii, 144 p.
Citation
Distribution Statement
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.