The development of a naval battle model and its validation using historical data

Abstract

This thesis describes the development and validation of a naval battle model which incorporates a tactical theory by Captain Wayne P. Hughes, Jr. Opposing forces are portrayed as aggregations of the staying power and combat power of their individual platforms. Attrition is modeled as a force-on- force process and is expressed in terms of the degradation of each force's combat power and staying power throughout the engagement, user variation of model inputs concerning the timing, direction and strength of each force's fire permits analysis of the impact of scouting effectiveness and Command and Control on battle dynamics. Data from fourteen historical naval battles were gathered to compute model input parameters for the opposing forces and their interactions. The model's prediction of the outcome is compared with each battle's actual outcome. The conclusion drawn from this analysis that the model is a fair representation of reality. The model's potential for practical application is explored by using it to analyze the tactical options of the U.S. commander at the World War II Battle of Savo Island. Model results clearly indicate the weakness in U.S. tactics in this battle and suggest alternative tactics which afforded a better chance of success. (Author)