The effect of a U.S. Navy reduction in forces on the career path of Surface Warfare Officers progressing to Command at Sea

Abstract

This thesis analyzes the effects of planned U.S. Navy reduction in forces on the career path of Surface Warfare Officers progressing towards Command at Sea. FORECASTER, a Markovian model for forecasting naval officer distributions, was used to conduct steady state and transient analyses of current and planned billet data for FY 1990 - FY 1995. Results of these analyses indicated that a larger portion of officers will be serving in follow-on division officer tours, single (longer) department head tours, and in second (split) tour department head tours. Additionally, both Executive Officer and Commander Command Opportunity will decrease as billet reductions and redistributions are enacted.