A theory and model for the planning of land combat

Abstract

Planning land combat operations requires a method of evaluation to determine the strengths and weaknesses of the various possible courses of action. The principal means of evaluating these courses of action is wargaming. Some research indicates that planning efforts lack a coherent set of wargaming rules and principles that are widely accepted and understood by military professionals. This thesis develops a theory of combat for use by military professionals in the planning of land combat. The theory provides a method for evaluating alternative courses of action at the brigade through corps level that can be easily applied. The theory is based on the analysis and modeling of categorical data from the U.S. Army Concepts Analysis Agency's Benchmark database. The database includes 260 combined arms battles from the period 1937 through 1982. Loglinear models provide maximum likelihood estimates of the probability of an attack's success. The principle of falsification is explained and used to validate the theory using the historical data. Applications of the theory and model to the planning of land combat are discussed and areas for further research are outlined.