The Effect of Modeling Depth on Reliability Prediction for Systems Subject to a Phased Mission Profile

Abstract

The term phased mission profile describes a situation in which the factors that influence the longevity of a system change in the course of a sequence of distinct, successive periods of time which are the mission phases. Phased mission profile tend to be associated with more general phased missions, in which there can also be changes in the system configuration that is relevant to mission success, but many systems with a stable configuration are exposed to phased mission profiles. Predictions of the probability of mission success for a system typically result from combining predicted probabilities of mission success for its components according to a logic model for system's configuration. We investigate the effect that the depth to which the logic model is carried has on predictions, which the predictions at the component level are made using a standard methodology.