Eastern North Carolina Marine Corps Forces and installations high intensity Hurricane evacuation decision support

Abstract

Eastern North Carolina Marine Corps Forces and Installations (ENCMCFI) is located on the Atlantic coast of North Carolina and is therefore vulnerable to a major hurricane. Base commanders must weigh the substantial costs of evacuation - approximately 3 0- 5 0M for a full evacuation - against the risk posed by the effects of the storm if personnel are not evacuated. The purpose of this thesis is to provide a decision aid for base commanders to identify forecast conditions that indicate the need to initiate an evacuation. In order to assess the probability of a direct strike to ENCMCFI posed by a new storm, this thesis proposes using National Hurricane Center forecasts combined with a statistical model of historical forecast errors. Additionally an analysis of evacuation assets available and the distances to primary evacuation locations is also conducted to identify available options for evacuation at the decision time. A series of decision rules is created to determine whether, based on the current storm forecast and the available evacuation assets, evacuation is warranted now or whether it is better to wait until the next forecast is issued. The results of this study indicate that the risk of riding out the storm at ENCMCFI and the transportation risk of evacuating are approximately equal given the current evacuation plan and the required decision lead time.