Estimating active Army and Army Reserve competition for high quality recruits with other military services

Abstract

The analysis concentrated primarily on the recruiting of high quality recruits for the period FY 1987 through 2d Quarter FY 1995. The U.S. Military Entrance Processing Command (USMEPCOM) data used contained sufficiently accurate figures on Active Army and Army Reserve accessions. The data appears to represent a relatively accurate historical record of the number of non prior service enlistments into the Military Services, with the exception of the Air National Guard and Air Force Reserve. The USMEPCOM data is used to analyze the relationship between Active Army and Army Reserve accessions and the other Active Services and Reserves over three time periods; before, during and after Desert Shield/Desert Storm. Competition for high quality recruits is modelled and the distribution of those high quality recruits among the Military Services is estimated for geographic area equivalents to USAREC Brigades. The results provide a means for USAREC to gain insights into the most recent competition experienced by its Active Army and Army Reserve recruiting efforts with other Military Services.