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dc.contributor.advisorJacobs, Patricia
dc.contributor.advisorRegnier, Eva
dc.contributor.authorTaylor, Brian J.
dc.date.accessioned2012-03-14T17:38:35Z
dc.date.available2012-03-14T17:38:35Z
dc.date.issued2007-06
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10945/3512
dc.description.abstractEastern North Carolina Marine Corps Forces and Installations (ENCMCFI) is located on the Atlantic coast of North Carolina and is therefore vulnerable to a major hurricane. Base commanders must weigh the substantial costs of evacuation - approximately 3 0- 5 0M for a full evacuation - against the risk posed by the effects of the storm if personnel are not evacuated. The purpose of this thesis is to provide a decision aid for base commanders to identify forecast conditions that indicate the need to initiate an evacuation. In order to assess the probability of a direct strike to ENCMCFI posed by a new storm, this thesis proposes using National Hurricane Center forecasts combined with a statistical model of historical forecast errors. Additionally an analysis of evacuation assets available and the distances to primary evacuation locations is also conducted to identify available options for evacuation at the decision time. A series of decision rules is created to determine whether, based on the current storm forecast and the available evacuation assets, evacuation is warranted now or whether it is better to wait until the next forecast is issued. The results of this study indicate that the risk of riding out the storm at ENCMCFI and the transportation risk of evacuating are approximately equal given the current evacuation plan and the required decision lead time.en_US
dc.description.urihttp://archive.org/details/easternnorthcaro109453512
dc.format.extentxvi, 95 p. : col. maps ;en_US
dc.publisherMonterey, California. Naval Postgraduate Schoolen_US
dc.rightsThis publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. As such, it is in the public domain, and under the provisions of Title 17, United States Code, Section 105, may not be copyrighted.en_US
dc.subject.lcshMathematical modelsen_US
dc.subject.lcshForecastingen_US
dc.subject.lcshHurricanesen_US
dc.titleEastern North Carolina Marine Corps Forces and installations high intensity Hurricane evacuation decision supporten_US
dc.typeThesisen_US
dc.contributor.secondreaderPosadas, Sergio
dc.contributor.corporateNaval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
dc.contributor.departmentOperations Research
dc.description.serviceUS Marine Corps (USMC) author.en_US
dc.identifier.oclc156939107
etd.thesisdegree.nameM.S.en_US
etd.thesisdegree.levelMastersen_US
etd.thesisdegree.disciplineOperations Researchen_US
etd.thesisdegree.grantorNaval Postgraduate Schoolen_US
etd.verifiednoen_US


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