The pace of peace on the viability of Bosnia and Herzegovina twelve years after Dayton

Abstract

The fratricidal war in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) between 1992 and 1995 was the third and most brutal chapter of the dissolution of former Yugoslavia. The war left the country devastated and deeply divided along ethnic lines. Pursuant to the impotence of the International Community (IC) to stop the fighting, and after the humanitarian and political consequences of the war had finally become unbearable, a delicate and complicated compromise was hammered out in Dayton. Twelve years have passed since the signing of the Dayton Peace Accords, which have seen immense international investment. While official rhetoric by the International Community seems to suggest that there is constant progress in state and nation building, academic in-depth studies and close political observers are more skeptical. There is no consensus as to how viable BiH is today. This thesis first develops different criteria for state viability in ethically divided societies, derived from the literatures on strong and weak states and on the post-Westphalian system. This concept is then applied to the Bosnian case. Since internal and external security are the principal political goods deliverable for the inhabitants of any state and taking into consideration that the state has to have the monopoly over the legitimate use of force, the defense reform process since 2003 is taken as the major indicator for the state viability of Bosnia today. The thesis concludes that despite much progress Bosnia is not yet viable without further international assistance.