A simulation of the Bonus Incentive Recruiter Model (BIRM)

Abstract

The purpose of this thesis is to provide the United States Army Recruiting Command (USAREC) with background material for developing the bonus table of the Bonus Incentive Recruiter Model (BIRM) and to provide estimates of the BIRM's effects on recruiting. Since this incentive structure has not been field tested, it is critical for USAREC to accurately understand the possible outcomes, advantages, and shortcomings if the BIRM were implemented. The first part of this thesis describes a method for developing the bonus table that ties the recruiter's forecast to his actual production. The recruiter's decision problem is analyzed through an influence diagram and decision trec. The recruiter's decision is also modeled using utility theory, which provides a basis for the simulation. The bonus table, together with the recruiter's utility and cost functions, are used to estimate the amount of time and cost it takes the recruiters (in aggregate) to meet the Army's recruiting mission. The data from the simulation was used to estimate the effects of the utility, cost and production functions. The simulation found that USAREC should meet the Army's manpower goals with the BIRM and the cost should be less than hiring additional recruiters.