Forecasting 5"/54 caliber non-combat expenditure requirements for surface combatants of the U.S. Pacific Fleet\c Steven R. Rasmussen.
Rasmussen, Steven R.
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This thesis applies data analysis and casual forecasting methods to the problem of predicting 5'/54 caliber gun ammunition non-combat expenditure requirements (NCERs) for U.S. Pacific Fleet surface combatants. The NCER is the amount of ammunition required for non-combat purposes for a given fiscal year. Current methodology does not consider past expenditure data when predicting future requirements and significantly overestimates them. The author takes advantage of the fact that similar ship types follow an identical notional training cycle between overseas deployments leading to distinct expenditure patterns. This thesis shows that improvements to current NCER determination procedures can be achieved using historical consumption data as a function of ship type and relative position in the interdeployment training cycle. The results include a significant reduction in requirements overestimation and more accurate annual ammunition planning factors.
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