The impact of Junior Reserve Officer Training Corps and other youth programs on Navy first-term attrition, promotion, and reenlistment

Abstract

This study investigates whether participation in the Junior Reserve Offices Training Corps (JROTC) and other youth programs significantly affects the performance of first-term Navy enlistees. This analysis makes use of multivariate models to estimate the causal effect of JROTC participation on first-term attrition, promotion and reenlistment. The analysis uses data from the Defense Manpower Data Center (DMDC) enlisted personnel cohort files for Fiscal Years (FY) 1994 to 2002. The analysis finds that participation in JROTC reduces first-term attrition and increases the probability of reenlistment, but also reduces the probability of promotion. This latter result is in part due to the Navyαs hierarchical structure, which limits the number of promotions combined with the fact that JROTC enlistees tend to enter at higher grades. The results also show that females who participate in JROTC reenlist at higher rates than males. These findings are relevant to policy-makers when determining the future of the JROTC program. By investing early in this program, the Navy could generate substantial cost savings in the form of recruiting and training costs. I would recommend that a cost benefit analysis study be conducted to determine if the high school JROTC program is cost-effective.