Power law decay in model predictability skill

Abstract

Ocean predictability skill is investigated using a Gulf of Mexico nowcast/forecast model. Power law scaling is found in the mean square error of displacement between drifting buoy and model trajectories (both at 50 m depth). The probability density function of the model valid prediction period (VPP) is asymmetric with a long and broad tail on the higher value side, which suggests longterm predictability. The calculations demonstrate that the long-term (extreme long such as 50–60 day) predictability is not an "outlier" and shares the same statistical properties as the short-term predictions.