Power law decay in model predictability skill
Poberezhny, Yuri A.
Ivanov, Leonid M.
Kantha, Lakshmi H.
Melnichenko, Oleg V.
Chu, Peter C.
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Ocean predictability skill is investigated using a Gulf of Mexico nowcast/forecast model. Power law scaling is found in the mean square error of displacement between drifting buoy and model trajectories (both at 50 m depth). The probability density function of the model valid prediction period (VPP) is asymmetric with a long and broad tail on the higher value side, which suggests longterm predictability. The calculations demonstrate that the long-term (extreme long such as 50–60 day) predictability is not an "outlier" and shares the same statistical properties as the short-term predictions.
Geophysical Research Letters, American Geophysical Union, 29 (15), 10.1029/2002GLO14891.The article of record as published may be located at http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2002GL014891
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