Statistical characteristics of irreversible predictability time in regional ocean models
Chu, Peter C.
MetadataShow full item record
Probabilistic aspects of regional ocean model predictability is analyzed using the probability density function (PDF) of the irreversible predictability time (IPT) (called t -PDF) computed from an unconstrained ensemble of stochastic perturbations in initial conditions, winds, and open boundary conditions. Two-attractors (a chaotic attractor and a small-amplitude stable limit cycle) are found in the winddriven circulation. Relationship between attractor’s residence time and IPT determines the -PDF for the short (up to several weeks) and intermediate (up to two months) predictions. The t-PDF is usually non-Gaussian but not multimodal for red-noise perturbations in initial conditions and perturbations in the wind and open boundary conditions. Bifurcation of t -PDF occurs as the tolerance level varies. Generally, extremely successful predictions (corresponding to the t-PDF’s tail toward large IPT domain) are not outliers and share the same statistics as a whole ensemble of predictions.
Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, European Geosciences Union/American Geophysical Union, 12, 1-10.
Showing items related by title, author, creator and subject.
The U.S. Air Force Weather Agency’s mesoscale ensemble: scientific description and performance results Hacker, J.P.; Ha, S.-Y.; Snyder, C.; Berner, J.; Eckel, F.A.; Kuchera, E.; Pocernich, M.; Rugg, S.; Schramm, J.; Wang, X. (2011);This work evaluates several techniques to account for mesoscale initial-condition (IC) and model uncertainty in a short-range ensemble prediction system based on the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model. A ...
Cosmological models with weakly turbulent fluctuations of the metric superimposed on a homogeneous and isotropic background metric Jackson, John Philip (Monterey, Calif. : Naval Postgraduate School, 1972);Uniform and isotropic mathematical models of the expanding universe usually predict an initial singularity of infinite mass density and space curvature. To study possible mechanisms which would avoid the occurance of ...
Franklin, Kyle B. (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 2014-03);Analysis of satellite imagery shows horizontally extensive coastal stratocumulus layers with closed cell mesoscale cellular convection (MCC) near the coast transitioning to open cell MCC further offshore. The nearshore MCC ...