Statistical characteristics of irreversible predictability time in regional ocean models
Chu, Peter C.
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Probabilistic aspects of regional ocean model predictability is analyzed using the probability density function (PDF) of the irreversible predictability time (IPT) (called t -PDF) computed from an unconstrained ensemble of stochastic perturbations in initial conditions, winds, and open boundary conditions. Two-attractors (a chaotic attractor and a small-amplitude stable limit cycle) are found in the winddriven circulation. Relationship between attractor’s residence time and IPT determines the -PDF for the short (up to several weeks) and intermediate (up to two months) predictions. The t-PDF is usually non-Gaussian but not multimodal for red-noise perturbations in initial conditions and perturbations in the wind and open boundary conditions. Bifurcation of t -PDF occurs as the tolerance level varies. Generally, extremely successful predictions (corresponding to the t-PDF’s tail toward large IPT domain) are not outliers and share the same statistics as a whole ensemble of predictions.
Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, European Geosciences Union/American Geophysical Union, 12, 1-10.
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