Battlespace on demand for maritime threats: mine/IED drift in the Strait of Hormuz and near Iraqi oil terminals

Abstract

An attack by drifting mines and or improvised explosion devices (IEDs) in the Strait of Hormuz or near Iraqi Oil Terminals in the northern Persian Gulf has disastrous effects on global economy and military operations. Such impacts are highly dependent upon environmental conditions. The Strait of Hormuz is narrow and has turbulent currents that change in intensity and direction due to the reverse estuarine flow of the Persian Gulf. On the border between extratropical and monsoonal atmospheric synoptic influences, the wind direction and intensity are dependent on time of year, which side of the strait due to terrain, and time of day due to land/sea breeze cycles. Mine/IED drift trajectory is analyzed utilizing a Lagrangian drift model with inputs of surface winds and currents from the Naval Oceanographic Office and the Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center, followed by comparative analysis with climatology inputs. The results show that the variable nature of the wind/current direction and speed through the strait and in the Gulf is impossible to capture using climatology inputs. Therefore, using operational, near real time environmental data is necessary for information superiority.