How long can an atmospheric model predict?
Abstract
Prediction of atmospheric
phenomena needs three components: a
theoretical (or numerical) model based on
the natural laws (physical, chemical, or
biological), a sampling set of the reality, and
a tolerance level. Comparison between the
predicted and sampled values leads to the
estimation of model error. In the error phase
space, the prediction error is treated as a
point; and the tolerance level (a prediction
parameter) determines a tolerance-ellipsoid. The prediction continues until the error first
exceeding the tolerance level (i.e., the error
point first crossing the tolerance-ellipsoid),
which is the first-passage time. Well established theoretical framework such as backward Fokker-Planck equation can be used to estimate the first-passage time - an up time limit for any model prediction. An population dynamical system is used as an example to illustrate the concept and methodology and the dependence of the first-passage time on the model and prediction parameters.
Description
Symposium on 50th Anniversary of Operational Numerical Weather Prediction, American Meteorological Society, DVD-ROM, 9 pages
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.Collections
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