Publication:
How long can an atmospheric model predict?

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Authors
Ivanov, Leonid M.
Chu, Peter C.
Subjects
first-passage time, model predictability, tolerance level, stochastic forcing, backward Fokker-Planck equation
Advisors
Date of Issue
2004-06
Date
2004-06
Publisher
Language
Abstract
Prediction of atmospheric phenomena needs three components: a theoretical (or numerical) model based on the natural laws (physical, chemical, or biological), a sampling set of the reality, and a tolerance level. Comparison between the predicted and sampled values leads to the estimation of model error. In the error phase space, the prediction error is treated as a point; and the tolerance level (a prediction parameter) determines a tolerance-ellipsoid. The prediction continues until the error first exceeding the tolerance level (i.e., the error point first crossing the tolerance-ellipsoid), which is the first-passage time. Well established theoretical framework such as backward Fokker-Planck equation can be used to estimate the first-passage time - an up time limit for any model prediction. An population dynamical system is used as an example to illustrate the concept and methodology and the dependence of the first-passage time on the model and prediction parameters.
Type
Conference Proceedings
Description
Symposium on 50th Anniversary of Operational Numerical Weather Prediction, American Meteorological Society, DVD-ROM, 9 pages
Series/Report No
Department
Department of Oceanography
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Citation
Chu, P.C., and L.M. Ivanov, 2004: How long can an atmospheric model predict? Symposium on 50th Anniversary of Operational Numerical Weather Prediction, American Meteorological Society, DVD-ROM, 9 pages
Distribution Statement
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This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.
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