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dc.contributor.authorIvanov, Leonid M.
dc.contributor.authorChu, Peter C.
dc.date2004-06
dc.date.accessioned2013-09-11T23:04:35Z
dc.date.available2013-09-11T23:04:35Z
dc.date.issued2004-06
dc.identifier.citationChu, P.C., and L.M. Ivanov, 2004: How long can an atmospheric model predict? Symposium on 50th Anniversary of Operational Numerical Weather Prediction, American Meteorological Society, DVD-ROM, 9 pages
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10945/36284
dc.descriptionSymposium on 50th Anniversary of Operational Numerical Weather Prediction, American Meteorological Society, DVD-ROM, 9 pagesen_US
dc.description.abstractPrediction of atmospheric phenomena needs three components: a theoretical (or numerical) model based on the natural laws (physical, chemical, or biological), a sampling set of the reality, and a tolerance level. Comparison between the predicted and sampled values leads to the estimation of model error. In the error phase space, the prediction error is treated as a point; and the tolerance level (a prediction parameter) determines a tolerance-ellipsoid. The prediction continues until the error first exceeding the tolerance level (i.e., the error point first crossing the tolerance-ellipsoid), which is the first-passage time. Well established theoretical framework such as backward Fokker-Planck equation can be used to estimate the first-passage time - an up time limit for any model prediction. An population dynamical system is used as an example to illustrate the concept and methodology and the dependence of the first-passage time on the model and prediction parameters.en_US
dc.rightsThis publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.en_US
dc.titleHow long can an atmospheric model predict?en_US
dc.typeConference Proceedingsen_US
dc.contributor.departmentDepartment of Oceanography
dc.subject.authorfirst-passage time, model predictability, tolerance level, stochastic forcing, backward Fokker-Planck equationen_US


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