How Probabilistic Risk Assessment Can Mislead Terrorism Risk Analysts
MetadataShow full item record
Traditional probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), of the type originally developed for engineered systems, is still proposed for terrorism risk analysis. We show that such PRA appli- cations are unjustified in general. The capacity of terrorists to seek and use information and to actively research different attack options before deciding what to do raises unique fea- tures of terrorism risk assessment that are not adequately addressed by conventional PRA for natural and engineered systems—in part because decisions based on such PRA estimates do not adequately hedge against the different probabilities that attackers may eventually act upon. These probabilities may differ from the defender’s (even if the defender’s experts are thoroughly trained, well calibrated, unbiased probability assessors) because they may be con- ditioned on different information. We illustrate the fundamental differences between PRA and terrorism risk analysis, and suggest use of robust decision analysis for risk management when attackers may know more about some attack options than we do.
Risk Analysis, 31, pp. 196-204.The article of record as published may be located at http://dx.doi.org/DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2010.01492.xCenter for Infrastructure Defense (CID) Paper.
RightsThis publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.
Showing items related by title, author, creator and subject.
Naval Postgraduate School Center for Homeland Defense and Security (CHDS) (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate SchoolCenter for Homeland Defense and Security, 2006);July 2006. The July 2006 issue of Homeland Security Affairs offers articles about risk perception, domestic right wing extremist groups, social network analysis, and the impact of foreign policy on homeland security. It ...
Canonico, Peter J. (Monterey California. Naval Postgraduate School, 2004-12);Alternate Military Strategy for the War on Terrorism calls for addressing the war as a global insurgency. Addressing the war on terrorism as a Global Insurgency provides an alternative strategic framework for prosecuting ...
Hanle, Donald J. (1987);This thesis examines the proposition that terrorism is a form of war. To do this, this paper first analyzes warfare in terms of what it is and how it functions. This is done by surveying classical military thinkers such ...