Displaying uncertainty a comparison between submarine subject matter experts
Prouty, James R.
Hutchins, Susan G.
Kirschenbaum, Susan S.
Shattuck, Lawrence G.
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This study investigates the operational implications of the differences between submarine Target Motion Analysis (TMA) experts. A submarineâ s use of passive sonar provides uncertain data required to make certain decisions. This experiment presents four individual scenarios to three submarine TMA experts: Commanding/Executive Officers (CO/XO), Department Heads (DH), and Fire Control Technicians (FT). Ten individuals from each expert group volunteered from the Groton, CT, and Bangor, WA, submarine bases. A between subject design experiment compared the ranges, range envelopes, time, and over or under estimations of range to the contact generated by each group of experts. After the experiment subjective and objective data were analyzed in order to determine what, if any, differences exist between the three different experts. The results indicate that there was no significant difference between experts. Recommendations address improvements in experiment implementation which can be integrated into future studiesas well as the design of improved decision aids.
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