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dc.contributor.authorMcNab, Robert M.
dc.contributor.authorRider, Mark
dc.contributor.authorWall, Kent D.
dc.date.accessioned2013-10-25T16:02:34Z
dc.date.available2013-10-25T16:02:34Z
dc.date.issued2007-04
dc.identifier.citationWorking Paper 07-22
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10945/36991
dc.descriptionThis paper can be downloaded at: http://aysps.gsu.edu/publications/2007/index.htmen_US
dc.descriptionSSRN-id989050en_US
dc.description.abstractExisting evidence suggests that U.S. Government budget receipts forecasts are unbiased and efficient. Our study is an attempt to examine the veracity of these findings. The time series framework employed in this study is distinguished from previous work in three ways. First, we build a model that explicitly admits serial correlation in the residuals by allowing for autoregressive, moving-average, serial correlation. Second, we employ the nonparametric Monte-Carlo bootstrap to free ourselves from reliance on asymptotic distribution theory which is suspect given the short data series available for this study. Third, we control for errors in the macroeconomic and financial assumptions used to produce the U.S. Government’s budget forecasts. We find that the U.S. Government’s annual, one-year ahead, budget receipts forecasts for fiscal years 1963 through 2003 are biased and inefficient. In addition, we find that these forecasts exhibit serial correlation in their errors and thus do not efficiently exploit all available information. Finally, we find evidence that is consistent with strategic bias that may reflect the political goals of the Administration in power.en_US
dc.rightsApproved for public release, distribution unlimited.en_US
dc.titleAre Errors in Official U.S. Budget Receipts Forecasts Just Noise? / 2007en_US
dc.typeWorking Paperen_US
dc.contributor.corporateAndrew Young School of Policy Studies Research Paper Series
dc.contributor.departmentDepartment of Economics International Studies Program


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