HMM and auction-based formulations of ISR coordination mechanisms for the expeditionary strike group missions

Abstract

In this paper, multi-stage auction-based intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) coordination mechanisms are investigated in the context of dynamic and uncertain mission environments, such as those faced by expeditionary strike groups. Each atribute of the mission task is modeled using a hidden Markov model (HMM) with controllable emission matrices, corresponding to eash ISR asset. For each HMM-sensor pair, we evaluate a metrix of information gains (uncertainty reduction measures); the elements of this matrix depend on the coordination structure and the concomitant delays accrued. We consider three coordination structures (distributed ISR coordination, ISR officer serving as a coordinator, ISR officer serving as a commander) here. We evaluate these structures on a hypothetical mission scenario that requires the monitoring of ISR activities in multiple geographic regions. The three structures are evaluated by comparing the task state estimation error cost, as well as travel, waiting and assignment delays. The results of analysis were used as a guide in the design of a mission scenario and asset composition for team-in-the-loop experimentation at NPS. Our solution has the potential to be a mixed initiative decision support tool to an ISR coordinator/commander, where the human provides possible sensor-task pairing and the tool evaluates the efficacy of assignment in terms of task accuracy and delays.