Show simple item record

dc.contributor.advisorWash, Carlyle H.
dc.contributor.authorMiller, Ronald J.
dc.date.accessioned2013-11-20T23:33:31Z
dc.date.available2013-11-20T23:33:31Z
dc.date.issued1990-06
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10945/37528
dc.description.abstractRapid cyclogenesis is studied using the Naval Operational Regional Atmospheric Prediction System (NORAPS) numerical model. The cyclone studied occurred during the second Intensive Observation Period (IOP-2) of the Experiment on Rapidly Intensifying Cyclones over the Atlantic (ERICA). Several simulations were run to examine the inability of this and other models to correctly predict development movement, and other characteristics of this cyclone. The experiments consisted of varying the cumulus parameterization and the initial low-level temperature and moisture fields. The exact cumulus specification did not appear to have a significant effect on the forecast sea level pressure. Although convective precipitation amounts varied with different parameterizations, the stable precipitation recovered the difference resulting in a nearly equivalent amount of latent heating. A dry simulation showed that the latent heat released from precipitation is necessary to achieve the observed deepening rate. A poor analysis over the data-sparse ocean and lack of a moisture analysis caused the modeled atmosphere to be too potentially unstable, resulting in much more precipitation and development than was observed early in the forecast period. A simulation using the global analysis fields for initialization, which were somewhat cooler and drier than the NORAPS initial fields, resulted in a better forecast, although the observed deepening rate was not achieved. All simulations incorrectly develop the first of two lows. Numerical models run at the National Meteorological Center (NMC) also failed to correctly deepen the secondary low, and varied greatly in their predicted deepening rates.en_US
dc.description.urihttp://archive.org/details/aninvestigationo1094537528
dc.format.extentv, 81 p. bill.en_US
dc.language.isoen_US
dc.publisherMonterey, California. Naval Postgraduate Schoolen_US
dc.rightsThis publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.en_US
dc.subject.lcshCyclonesen_US
dc.subject.lcshCyclone forecastingen_US
dc.subject.lcshMeteorologyen_US
dc.titleAn Investigation of the ERICA IOP-2 Cyclone Using the NORAPS Modelen_US
dc.typeThesisen_US
dc.contributor.secondreaderNuss, Wendell L.
dc.contributor.corporateNaval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
dc.contributor.schoolNaval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
dc.contributor.departmentMeteorology
dc.subject.authorRapid cyclogenesisen_US
dc.subject.authorERICAen_US
dc.subject.authorNORAPSen_US
dc.description.serviceNaval Oceanographic & Atmospheric Research Laboratory (US) (civilian) author.en_US
etd.thesisdegree.nameM.S. in Meteorologyen_US
etd.thesisdegree.levelMastersen_US
etd.thesisdegree.disciplineMeteorologyen_US
etd.thesisdegree.grantorNaval Postgraduate Schoolen_US
dc.description.distributionstatementApproved for public release; distribution is unlimited.


Files in this item

Thumbnail

This item appears in the following Collection(s)

Show simple item record