Analysis of air land combat tactics using JANUS(T) system

Abstract

The comparison of fighting tactics in a high-resolution model from the JANUS(T) system is the primary purpose for this thesis. The scenario is fought between the South Korean Army Battalion Task force (called Blue) against a North Korean Mechanized Battalion (Red). Two courses of action for defense are analyzed in order to determine whether a static or dynamic tactic is better for the Blue force in a sector during the first thirty minutes of an invasion into South Korea. Attrition rates, firepower scores, and the number of survivors are needed to compute the force ratio, which is primary measure of effectiveness. At the end of the battle, the static defense tactic has the largest force ratio and is thus the better tactic. The data that are generated from the JANUS(T) model form the fundamental basis for the comparison of methods that calculate force ratios. The data from the Janus(T) model are important because they are generated from a database of the actual terrain of Korea and of the characteristics of hostile and allied weapons. The JANUS(T) output shows casualties of the four weapon types for both forces during a simulated time period. The sequence of weapon casualties form a time history or time series. Maximum likelihood estimates (MLE) for time series of the casualties are derived by the Combat Analysis Model (COMAN). The attrition rate is then used by the potential-antipotential (PAP) system and the Lanchester simulation. A recent enhancement to the HANUS(T) system includes the capability for the user to structure a combat scenario and allow it to run multiple times in an automatic mode, where the randomness of each replication is a result of Monte Carlo processes on random variables (i.e., detections, hits, and kills) which will give different results with each simulation. Assuming independence, the COMAN MLE is used on the combined time-series of ten replications. Embedded into the COMAN MLE attrition rates are the other battlefield factors. The attrition rates include much more than the probability of kill (PK) values. The attrition rate that was produced is a composite of the interaction of every system, not just the firepower. The Eigenvalue matrix in the thesis encompasses the relevant databases inherent to the JANUS(T) system. Consequently, the value vector is as good as the portrayal of battle which is produced by the JANUS(T) system.