Publication:
Population-centric intelligence, repression, and the cycles of contention

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Authors
Spinello, Michael J.
Mahoney, Justin R.
Subjects
Advisors
Lee, Doowan
Date of Issue
2008-12
Date
Publisher
Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School
Language
Abstract
In this thesis, we examine the role of intelligence in the cycle of contention between the state and emergent insurgent movements within the context of violent contentious politics. This thesis explores the implications of initial levels of intelligence vis-aÌ -vis the scope, organization, modus operandi, and composition of nascent insurgent movements. Specifically, the thesis considers the role that particular types of intelligence play in allowing for effective repression targeting and timing to counter emerging insurgent threats. Furthermore, we explore and expand upon the notion proposed by Mohammed Hafez that a reactive and indiscriminate repression policy, attendant on a paucity of initial intelligence, has the effect of causing a nascent insurgent movement to become: 1) increasingly violent; 2) less visible to the state as it resorts to informal networks for mobilization and operation; and 3) expanded in size as a greater number of individuals become alienated from the state and find common cause with the insurgent movement and its framing of the conflict. Finally, we consider how adaptive states may learn from the dynamic interaction with insurgent movements by improving their intelligence paradigm to generate that intelligence which allows for increasingly proactive and discriminate repression.
Type
Thesis
Description
Department
Defense Analysis (DA)
Organization
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
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NPS Report Number
Sponsors
Funder
Format
xiv, 135 p. : ill. (some col.) ;
Citation
Distribution Statement
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.
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