Assessing victory: how to identify the correct measures of success in counterinsurgency warfare-the case of the FARC in Colombia

Abstract

This thesis applies net assessment to the Colombian Governments protracted campaign against the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) in order to determine proper metrics to track progress in counterinsurgency warfare. Net assessment is used to analyze potential centers of gravity to determine the correct center of gravity. Armed with the correct center of gravity, potential critical vulnerabilities are examined. Finally, once the correct critical vulnerability is identified, metrics are assessed, in order to determine which metrics accurately track progress in attacking the identified center of gravity. As debate exists as to the true nature of the FARC, this thesis applies the above methodology to the FARC as both an ideological insurgent group and a narco-criminal organization, and identifies different centers of gravity, critical vulnerabilities and metrics in each case.