Military retirement and wealth forecasting during DoD manpower drawdown
Mays, Steven D.
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The Department of Defense will be taking preemptive action to reduce its budget in the face of imminent reduction in federal spending. The Marine Corps is projected to cut a significant percentage of its current active duty end strength. This study focused specifically on the Marine Corps population, both to limit the scope of the study and to model the effects of the manpower reduction parameters used on its target population. The Marine Corps will utilize temporary early retirement authority (TERA), voluntary separation pay (VSP), enlisted retention, and Officer Continuation Boards as the parameters to reduce its end strength in the coming years. The target population for this study was career-intentioned Marines officers defined as those Marines officers who voluntarily served beyond their initial contractual obligation by accepting a career designation status. Some will be separated prior to achieving traditional, 20-year, retirement eligibility. This study will draw comparisons between promotion probabilities from known and theoretical data using Monte Carlo simulation and other statistical methods to generate a career-decision support tool for the affected population of Marines to make informed retirement planning decisions.
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