Life-cycle cost modeling to determine whether vehicle-to-grid (V2G) integration and ancillary service revenue can generate a viable case for plug-in electric drive vehicles
Nussbaum, Daniel A.
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In an effort to increase U.S. energy security by reducing oil consumption, various federal mandates and executive orders require reduced petroleum use and greenhouse gas emissions by federal non-tactical vehicle fleets. Transitioning federal fleets to plug-in electric drive vehicles (PEDVs) is one option to meet these mandates. This research performs a life-cycle cost analysis using modeling and simulation to determine the parameters under which vehicle-to-grid (V2G) integration and associated revenue streams can create a viable economic case for the transition of federal fleets to PEDVs. Under current market conditions, bidirectional V2G frequency regulation (FR) is not currently viable. Unidirectional FR has potential, but it provides minimal reductions in PEDV life-cycle cost. The cost to meet petroleum reduction mandates by transitioning light-duty fleets to PEDVs is cost prohibitive and impractical, requiring almost a complete one-for-one replacement of the current fleet of traditional light-duty passenger vehicles. Realistically meeting the mandate without fleet downsizing will require implementing a transition toward alternatively fueled vehicles beyond the light-duty passenger vehicle class. However, economic justification will require a reduction in PEDV acquisition costs or improved market conditions for V2G FR (consisting of lower throughput and higher regulation market clearing prices) thereby resulting in considerably greater net revenue.
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