A revolutionary approach for the development of future ground combat system specifications

Abstract

This thesis provides a new specification development process for Ground Combat Vehicles (GCVs). The most recent development programs for such a vehicle class failed due to extensive cost overruns. The author uses agent-based simulation to model and study the impacts of CGV capabilities in a most likely combat scenario according to the current threat assessment of the U.S. government. The most advanced modern weapon systems are used as a baseline performance and extensive research is done to determine the state-of-the-art technologies available. These experimental technologies are then transferred to feasible ranges for specified performance factors for GCVs, such as engagement range, weapons lethality, armor, and mobility. Nearly orthogonal and space-filling designs are used to efficiently construct a response surface consisting of defined measures of effectiveness (MOEs) for GCVs. For each MOE, a meta-model is fitted that includes the most significant factors, interactions, and non-linarites. These models are then combined to find the most robust solution since a model will never exactly depict the real situation and a GCV will not be deployed in a scenario exactly like the one used in the study. The results of the meta-models will be used by the Department of Systems Engineering at the Naval Postgraduate School to create a dashboard for visualization of the tradeoff effects between performance factors.