Exploring Combat Models for Non-Monotonicities and Remedies
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Throughout the Department of Defense (DoD), analysts use Models and Simulations (M&S) to assist decision makers in choosing among various strategic courses of action, whether or not to purchase particular weapons systems, implement programs, and so on. The cost of these weapon systems and programs can run into billions of dollars, and there is always the possibility of lives lost. Therefore, ensuring that our models are logically coherent and provide believable results is of a paramount importance. Models that contain non-monotonic output may be unbelievable to decision-makers. A model is non-monotonic if adding capability to one side, while holding everything else constant, results in a less favorable outcome for that side. When a model used to decide between alternatives exhibits non-monotonic behavior, the model's validity, as well as its usefulness for analysis, may come into question.
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