A New Perspective on Use of the Critical Decision Method with Intelligence Analysts

Abstract

Intelligence analysts engage in information seeking, evaluation, prediction, and reporting behavior in an extremely information-intensive work environment. A Cognitive Task Analysis (CTA) was conducted on intelligence analysts to capture data that will provide input to support development of a computational model of the analyst's processes and analytic strategies. A hybrid method was used to conduct the CTA, including a modified version of the critical decision method. Participants were asked to describe an example of a critical analysis assignment where they had to collect, analyze, and produce a report on intelligence of a strategic nature. Procedures used to conduct the CTA are described in this paper along with initial results. Several factors contribute to making the analyst's task challenging: (i) time pressure, (ii) a high cognitive workload, and (iii) difficult human judgments. Human judgments are involved in considering the plausibility of information, deciding what information to trust, and determining how much weight to place on specific pieces of data. Intelligence analysis involves a complex process of assessing the reliability of information from a wide variety of sources and combining seemingly unrelated events. This problem is challenging because it involves aspects of data mining, data correlation and human judgment.