Section 1, What Makes Intelligence Analysis Difficult? A Cognitive Task Analysis of Intelligence Analysts
Abstract
Intelligence analysts engage in information seeking, evaluation, prediction,
and reporting behavior in an extremely information-intensive work environment.
A Cognitive Task Analysis (CTA) was conducted on intelligence analysts to
capture data that will provide input to support development of a computational
model of the analyst's processes and analytic strategies. A hybrid method was
used to conduct the CTA, including a modified version of the critical decision
method. Participants were asked to describe an example of a critical analysis
assignment where they had to collect, analyze, and produce a report on
intelligence of a strategic nature. Procedures used to conduct the CTA are
described in this chapter along with initial results. Several factors contribute to
making the analyst's task challenging: (i) time pressure, (ii) a high cognitive
workload, and (iii) difficult human judgments. Human judgments are involved in
considering the plausibility of information, deciding what information to trust, and
determining how much weight to place on specific pieces of data. Intelligence
analysis involves a complex process of assessing the reliability of information
from a wide variety of sources and combining seemingly unrelated events. This problem is challenging because it involves aspects of data mining, data
correlation and human judgment.
Description
Section 1: Cognitive Task Analysis of Intelligence Analysts
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