Assisting People to Become Independent Learners in the Analysis of Intelligence
Abstract
The purpose of this project was to conduct applied research with exemplary technology to support post-graduate
instruction in intelligence analysis. The first phase of research used Cognitive Task Analysis (CTA) to understand the
nature of subject matter expertise for this domain, as well as leverage points for technology support. Results from the
CTA and advice from intelligence analysis instructors at the Naval Postgraduate School lead us to focus on the
development of a collaborative computer tool (CACHE) to support a method called the Analysis of Competing
Hypotheses (ACH). We first evaluated a non-collaborative version of an ACH tool in an NPS intelligence classroom
setting, followed by an evaluation of the collaborative tool, CACHE at NPS. These evaluations, along with similar studies
conducted in coordination with NIST and MITRE, suggested that ACH and CACHE can support intelligence activities and
mitigate confirmation bias. However, collaborative analysis has a number of trade-offs: it incurs overhead costs, and can
mitigate or exacerbate confirmation bias, depending on the mixture of predisposing biases of collaborators.
Description
Section 1: What Makes Intelligence Analysis Difficult? A Cognitive Task Analysis of Intelligence Analysts by Susan G. Hutchins, Peter L. Pirolli, and Stuart K. Card; Section 2: Evaluation of a Computer Support Tool for Analysis of Competing Hypotheses by Peter Pirolli, Lance Good, Julie Heiser, Jeff Shrager, and Susan Huthins; Section 3: Collaborative Intelligence Analysis with CACHE and its Effects on Information Gathering and Cognitive Bias
by Dorrit Billman, Gregorio Convertino, Jeff Shrager, J.P. Massar, Peter Pirolli
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.Collections
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