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dc.contributor.authorBrown, Gerald G.
dc.contributor.authorCox, Louis Anthony
dc.contributor.authorPollock, Stephen
dc.date2008
dc.date.accessioned2014-01-09T22:21:05Z
dc.date.available2014-01-09T22:21:05Z
dc.date.issued2008
dc.identifier.citationBrown, G., Cox, L., and Pollock, S., 2008, “When is Uncertainty About Uncertainty Worth Characterizing?” Interfaces, 38, pp. 465-468.
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10945/38109
dc.descriptionInterfaces, 38, pp. 465-468.en_US
dc.descriptionThe article of record as published may be located at http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/inte.1080.0397en_US
dc.description.abstractIn areas of risk assessment ranging from terrorism to health, safety, and the environment, authoritative guidance urges risk analysis to quantify and display their uncertainties about inputs that significantly affect the results of an analysis, including their uncertainties about subjective probabilities of events. Such "uncertainty characterization" is said to be an important part of fully and honestly informing decision makers about the estimates and uncertainties in analyses that support policy recommendations, enabling them to make better decisions. But is it? Characterization of uncertainties about probabilities often carries zero value of information and accomplishes nothing to improve risk-management decisions. Uncertainties about consequence probabilities are not worth characterizing when final actions must be taken based on information available now.en_US
dc.rightsdefined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.en_US
dc.titleWhen is Uncertainty About Uncertainty Worth Characterizing?en_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
dc.contributor.departmentOperations Research (OR)
dc.subject.authorrisk analysis; decision analysis; uncertainty analysis; expert elicitation; probability; uncertainty characterizationen_US


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