Planning the unplannable: Scenarios on the future of space
Huntley, Wade L.
Bock, Joseph G.
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This article explores the use of scenario analysis as a methodology to rigorously analyze potential space futures, particularly with respect to space security challenges, in the context of rapid and uncertain change across several dimensions of human space activities. The successful use of scenario analysis in other (e.g. corporate and military) sectors is described and results of an initial scenario analysis workshop are presented. Scenario analysis is recommended as a promising approach to evaluating the long-term consequences of various policy choices in the context of uncertainty, and as a process well-suited to fostering communication and building consensual knowledge among diverse stakeholders.
The article of record as published may be located at http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/ j.spacepol.2009.11.007
RightsThis publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.
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