A Sequential Bayesian Generalization of the Jelinski–Moranda Software Reliability Model

Abstract

The Jelinski–Moranda model of software reliability is generalized by introducing a negative-binomial prior distribution for the number of faults remaining, together with a Gamma distribution for the rate at which each fault is exposed. This model is well suited to sequential use, where a sequence of reliability forecasts is made in the process of testing or using the software. We also investigate replacing the Gamma distribution with a worst-case assumption about failure rates (the worst-case failure rate in models such as this is not infinite, since faults with large failure rates are immediately discovered and removed).