A Sequential Bayesian Generalization of the Jelinski–Moranda Software Reliability Model
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The Jelinski–Moranda model of software reliability is generalized by introducing a negative-binomial prior distribution for the number of faults remaining, together with a Gamma distribution for the rate at which each fault is exposed. This model is well suited to sequential use, where a sequence of reliability forecasts is made in the process of testing or using the software. We also investigate replacing the Gamma distribution with a worst-case assumption about failure rates (the worst-case failure rate in models such as this is not infinite, since faults with large failure rates are immediately discovered and removed).
The article of record as published may be located at http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/nav.20148Includes supplemental material: Excel spreadsheet