Cruise missile proliferation : an application of Bayesian analysis to intelligence forecasting
Gannon, Michael William
Laurance, Edward J.
Tollefson, Scott D.
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This thesis examines the manner in which the technique of Bayesian analysis may be applied to the forecasting of cruise missile proliferation. Bayesian analysis is a quantitative procedure in which the alternative hypothetical outcomes are postulated and their prior probabilities estimate. As additional relevant events occur, the probabilities of their association with each hypothesis are used to calculate a revised probability for each alternative outcome. To support a sample analysis, this thesis traces the historical development of cruise missiles, discusses the various motivations for their acquisition or indigenous production by a developing nation, and identifies technologies crucial to the building of an advanced cruise missile system. After describing the Bayesian method and demonstrating its use in a theoretical example, the thesis concludes with some policy implications of cruise missile proliferation and its forecasting by the intelligence community.
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