Show simple item record

dc.contributor.advisorLaurance, Edward J.
dc.contributor.authorGannon, Michael William
dc.dateSep-92
dc.date.accessioned2014-01-29T23:38:03Z
dc.date.available2014-01-29T23:38:03Z
dc.date.issued1992-09
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10945/38572
dc.descriptionApproved for public release; distribution is unlimited.en_US
dc.description.abstractThis thesis examines the manner in which the technique of Bayesian analysis may be applied to the forecasting of cruise missile proliferation. Bayesian analysis is a quantitative procedure in which the alternative hypothetical outcomes are postulated and their prior probabilities estimate. As additional relevant events occur, the probabilities of their association with each hypothesis are used to calculate a revised probability for each alternative outcome. To support a sample analysis, this thesis traces the historical development of cruise missiles, discusses the various motivations for their acquisition or indigenous production by a developing nation, and identifies technologies crucial to the building of an advanced cruise missile system. After describing the Bayesian method and demonstrating its use in a theoretical example, the thesis concludes with some policy implications of cruise missile proliferation and its forecasting by the intelligence community.en_US
dc.format.extentx, 86 p.;28 cm.en_US
dc.language.isoen_US
dc.publisherMonterey, California. Naval Postgraduate Schoolen_US
dc.rightsThis publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. As such, it is in the public domain, and under the provisions of Title 17, United States Code, Section 105, may not be copyrighted.en_US
dc.titleCruise missile proliferation : an application of Bayesian analysis to intelligence forecastingen_US
dc.typeThesisen_US
dc.contributor.secondreaderTollefson, Scott D.
dc.contributor.corporateNaval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
dc.contributor.departmentNational Security Affairs (NSA)
dc.subject.authorCruise Missilesen_US
dc.subject.authorProliferationen_US
dc.subject.authorForecasting Methodsen_US
dc.subject.authorBayesian Analysisen_US
dc.description.serviceLieutenant, United States Navyen_US
etd.thesisdegree.nameM.S. in National Security Affairsen_US
etd.thesisdegree.levelMastersen_US
etd.thesisdegree.disciplineNational Security Affairsen_US
etd.thesisdegree.grantorNaval Postgraduate Schoolen_US


Files in this item

Thumbnail

This item appears in the following Collection(s)

Show simple item record