Hierarchy-of-models Approach for Aggregated-Force Attrition

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Author
Taylor, James G.
Yildirim, Ugur Ziya
Murphy, William S. Jr.
Date
2000Metadata
Show full item recordAbstract
This paper presents some innovations for overcoming
shortcomings in the current state-of-the-art for the
hierarchy-of-models approach to modeling aggregatedforce
attrition in ground-combat models. The basic
concept of such an approach for modeling large-scale
system behavior is presented, together with the theoretical
underpinnings for modeling attrition in large-scale ground
combat. The output of an entity-level discrete-event
combat simulation is fit to a Lanchester-type aggregatedreplay
model. Use of a reliable statistical-estimation
technique for determining model parameters is
emphasized. The main innovation is to show how use of
more detailed output data (e.g. line-of-sight (LOS) data)
from the high-resolution simulation allows one to develop
maximum-likelihood estimates. The methodology is
applied to a current high-resolution DoD combat model,
and a Lanchester-type aggregated-force replay model is
developed.
Description
Proceedings of the 2000 Winter Simulation Conference J. A. Joines, R. R. Barton, K. Kang, and P. A. Fishwick, eds.
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defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.Collections
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