Sequential Experimentation for Estimating the Optimal Delay of Activities in PERT Networks
Buss, Arnold H.
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We apply Response Surface Methodology (RSM) utilizing simple fractional designs to optimize the Expected Present Value (EPV) of a stochastic project network with respect to the delay of activities. Such delay could increase EPV by postponing negative cash flows, possible at the expense of also delaying the final payment for the project. The problem was challenging due to a combination of high variability with relatively fl.at objective function near the optimum. Comparisons with the true optimal solutions, where available, indicated the robustness of the approach.
Proceedings of the 1995 Winter Simulation Conference ed. C. Alexopoulos, I\. Kang, W. R. Lilegdon, and D. Goldsman