Slope stability assessment using stochastic rainfall simulation
White, Joshua A.
Singham, Dashi I.
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Many regions around the world are vulnerable to rainfall-induced landslides and debris flow. A variety of methods, from simple analytical approximations to sophisticated numerical methods, have been proposed over the years for capturing the relevant physics leading to landslide initiation. A key shortcoming of current hazard analysis techniques, however, is that they typically rely on a single historical rainfall record as input to the hydromechanical analysis. Unfortunately, the use of a single record igores the inherently stochastic nature of the rainfall process. In this work, we employ a Markov chain model to generate many realizations of rainfall time series given a measured historical record. We then use these simulated realizations to drive several hundred finite element simulations of subsurface infiltration and collapse. The resulting slope-stability analysis provides an opportunity to assess the inherent distribution of failure statistics, and provides a much more complete picture of slope behavior.
The article of record as published may be found at http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.procs.2012.04.075
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