Comparing Directionally Sensitive MCUSUM and MEWMA Procedures with Application to Biosurveillance
Fricker, Ronald D. Jr.
Knitt, Matthew C.
Hu, Cecilia X.
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This paper compares the performance of two new directly-sensitive multivariate methods, based on the multivariate CUSUM (MCUSUM) and the multivariate exponentially weighted moving average (MEWMA), for biosurveillance. While neither of these methods is currently in use in a biosurviellance system, they are among the most promising multivariate methods for this application. Our analysis is based on a detailed series of simulations using synthetic biosurveillance data that mimics various types of disease background incidence and outbreaks. We apply the MCUSUM and the MEWMA to residuals from an adaptive regression that accounts for the systematic effects normally present in biosurviellance data. We find that, much like the results from univariate CUSUM and EWMA comparisons in classical statistical process control applications, the directionally-sensitive MCUSUM and MEWMA perform very similarly.
RightsThis publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.
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