Mediation outcomes from the second Sudan civil war: an analysis of Abuja and IGAD peace initiatives

Abstract

Context and process factors influenced mediation outcomes between the Sudan Peoples Liberation Movement/Army and the government of Sudan during the second Sudanese civil war. This research analyzed the impact of the nature of the parties, mediator, mediator strategy, and mediation timing as contributing factors toward conflict resolution during the Abuja peace process and Inter-Governmental Authority for Development peace initiatives on mediation outcomes. The factors most influential to mediation outcomes were based primarily on belligerents perceptions of the usefulness of mediation. Third-party intervention created a forum for the disputants to negotiate, but mediator attributes and strategy had a negligible effect on mediation outcomes. Mediation resulted in failure when parties had not yet encountered conditions that made mediation a viable option to achieve their goals; however, mediation conducted at the right time, when parties were ready to negotiate, resulted in successful outcomes. No single factor determined mediation outcomes, but context variables were the primary determinant of mediation outcomes in Sudan civil war mediations.